STATISTICAL PREVIEW: ABERDEEN (A)

The Bairns return to league action this week, as we face Aberdeen away from home in matchday three of the William Hill Premiership. Find the fixture information in our Matchday Guide

Kick-off is at 3pm, Sunday 31st August.

Aberdeen’s Form Guide

Using the Aberdeen v Falkirk Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that at the time of writing, Aberdeen have played only four competitive matches, with their fifth coming this Thursday in the second leg of their tie against FCSB.

They received a bye through the League Cup group stage due to qualifying for Europe and went on to win their round of 16 match against Greenock Morton to reach the quarter-finals.

Their league form has been much tougher. They have lost both of their Premiership games so far, against Celtic and Hearts, and are still looking for their first league goal of the season.

2–2 Draw vs FCSB (H) – Europa League
0–3 Win vs Greenock Morton (A) – League Cup
0–2 Loss vs Celtic (H) – Premiership
2–0 Loss vs Hearts (A) – Premiership

Aberdeen’s Last Two League Matches Analysed:

Aberdeen vs Celtic

Aberdeen struggled across nearly all areas of the pitch against Celtic, creating just 0.42 xG from six shots. They found it difficult to get into the box, recording only nine touches inside, with most of these coming from six crosses rather than runs into the area, with just one recorded.

Defensively, they were relatively strong on the ground, winning 64% of their defensive duels. In the air, however, they were well beaten, coming out on top in only 21% of aerial duels.

They also played cautiously when defending, attempting only 35 interceptions compared to Celtic’s 42, a significant gap given Celtic’s higher possession.

With this lack of interceptions, Celtic were able to pass the ball around under little pressure, completing 353 lateral passes compared to Aberdeen’s 83. This movement created ideal opportunities to play incisive passes into dangerous areas, reflected in their 86% accuracy on passes into the final third, compared to just 40% for Aberdeen.

Hearts vs Aberdeen

The stats in this match were much more even, with possession narrowly dominated by Aberdeen. They also edged Hearts on xG, 1.9 to 1.8. However, with a shooting accuracy of just 20%, none of this translated into a goal for Aberdeen.

Despite seeing more of the ball, Aberdeen averaged only 24 passes into the final third and 58 progressive passes, compared to Hearts with 37 and 70. This helps explain why they produced fewer shots overall and why they might have rushed some efforts, contributing to their underperformance in terms of xG.

A key problem came in their own defensive third. Aberdeen lost the ball there 34 times, nearly three times more than Hearts, who gave it away just 12 times, often putting Aberdeen under pressure before they had time to get back into shape.

Aberdeen’s One to Watch:

Nicolas Milanović: Aberdeen’s right winger has started both league matches since joining from Australia in the summer.

Although the team have yet to score a league goal, he has been active in attack, averaging three completed dribbles and winning 2.5 fouls per match. He has also contributed defensively, averaging 6.5 duels and three ball recoveries per game.

Final Thoughts:

One of Aberdeen’s problems this season has been finishing. They have created 16 shots in their two league matches but are still waiting for their first goal, with a shooting accuracy of just 25%. Against Falkirk, this could change, as they have allowed their opponents a much higher accuracy of 55%.

To keep Aberdeen’s shot accuracy down to their average level, Falkirk will likely need to stay strong in the air. Aberdeen have won only 33% of their aerial duels, while Falkirk have excelled in this area with a 53% success rate. Maintaining this edge could help limit threats from crosses and set pieces.

Another way Falkirk could cause problems is by pressing high. They average 15 recoveries per match in the attacking third, while Aberdeen have lost the ball there 13.5 times per game on average. This could be a key route to creating chances and putting the Aberdeen defence under pressure.

If you liked this statistical preview, you can find more football betting tips and football stats at Andy’s Bet Club. Please note, you must be 18 or over to use the site, and we strongly encourage responsible gambling.