Fresh from booking a spot in the Scottish Cup semi-finals last weekend, Falkirk know that victory over Aberdeen at Pittodrie will secure a top-half finish.

The Bairns are 6th on 42 points and cannot be caught before the split by their weekend rivals, who are 13 points worse off, lying in 9th with 29 marks to their credit.

Aberdeen Form Guide

Using the Aberdeen v Falkirk Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Dons are in a catastrophic period of form. They have lost six of their last eight, with their only win in that time coming against nine-man Motherwell in the Scottish Cup. They are, however, scoring far more goals at home than on the road. They have netted 22 times in 14 Premiership matches at Pittodrie, compared to just seven in 15 away.

3-0 Loss vs Dunfermline (A) – Scottish Cup

2-1 Loss vs Celtic (H) – Premiership

1-0 Loss vs Hearts (A) – Premiership

0-0 Draw vs Dundee United (A) – Premiership

3-2 Loss vs Dundee (H) – Premiership

Aberdeen’s Recent League Matches:

Aberdeen vs Celtic

Given their recent form, Aberdeen managed to run champions Celtic close at Pittodrie, succumbing to a 2-1 loss. Based on the xG figures of the teams, 1.98 and 2.57, respectively, this was a pretty accurate reflection of how the game panned out.

The Dons were not expected to take the game to Celtic, and that proved to be the case, offering just 35.6% of possession. Despite this, they attempted 390 passes, which was just a fraction short of the 392.8 that represents their season average. They did have a tendency to be rushed in possession, with Celtic allowing only 8.72 passes per defensive action – this was a much more intense brand of defending that Aberdeen typically face (12.97 PPDA). It resulted in 14.6% of Aberdeen passes going long, with just 29.8% of those completed. Striker Kevin Nisbet was often the target.

As a defensive force, Aberdeen were pretty proactive in the first half before becoming extremely passive in the second half. During the first 15 minutes after the break, their PPDA dropped to 70 and only picked back up to 15.8 in the closing stages after they had fallen behind.

When they did go forward, the focus was on the left wing. Of the Dons’ 19 shots from positional attacks, nine arrived from the left wing. The better-quality opportunities came through the centre, where 50% of their 0.93 xG from those situations was generated.   

While Nisbet was clearly the outstanding attacking threat (4 shots, 1 goal and 1.52 xG), defender Jack Milne had two efforts worth 0.3 xG.

Hearts vs Aberdeen

Aberdeen were defeated 1-0 by Premiership leaders Hearts at Tynecastle in a fixture that has historically favoured the team playing at home. That was the case in this encounter, despite the Jambos being ravaged by injuries. Aberdeen struggled to lay a glove on them in what was a thoroughly disappointing outing.

Peter Leven lined his side up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in the first half, but would switch to a 3-4-1-2 in the second after their efforts were fruitless. Those tweaks made little impact on Aberdeen’s offensive fortunes as they failed to muster a shot on target and offered just 0.56 xG from the five shots they had. Aside from an effort from Toyosi Olusanya in the first half worth 0.32 xG, they did not have another try of particular note, and they looked less effective for the change in system.

Aberdeen’s primarily attacked down the left, but despite 15 open play raids coming from this wing, they did not produce a single shot. From open play situations as a whole, they had only 0.17 xG, underlining a lack of creativity and penetration.

They were not without possession, though. They had 50.3% of the ball, which is above their season average of 48.3%. This figure, however, is skewed by the closing 15 minutes of the game, when they controlled 67%. This coincided with an intense style of defence that saw only 3.5 PPDA in the closing quarter of an hour, showing that though Aberdeen were ineffective, they were not without energy and intent.

Aberdeen’s One to Watch:

Stuart Armstrong: Armstrong may not have lived up to expectations at Aberdeen, but he is still their leading available outfielder when it comes to the SofaScore rating, as he sits at 6.87 this season. Amidst poor recent displays, his level has remained steady, and he notably supplied an assist in January’s 6-2 crushing of Livingston. He has created a team-leading six big chances, posts 1.6 key passes per match – another team-best figure – and delivers 33.5 accurate passes per game, the best among Aberdeen midfielders.

Final Thoughts:

Aberdeen have effectively acknowledged the fragility of their position in the Premiership this week by poaching St Mirren manager Stephen Robinson. It will be interesting to see what impact he can have this weekend.

There has been little consistency about anything Aberdeen have done in recent weeks, which makes it difficult to predict how they might approach this game. They have started in four different formations in their last five games, though they were predominantly a 3-5-2 side under Leven.

Going forward, the Dons have been poor for a prolonged period. They average 10.66 shots per game in the Premiership this season, but they have only been above this figure once in their last 11 matches. In the last 12, they have only bettered their average xG of 1.42 on three occasions, including their last outing against Celtic.

If there is any solace to be taken from recent league games, it is that they have only conceded three goals in three games, despite facing the top two. That’s an improvement on a season average of 1.41 goals against per game.

Under Leven, they became a team that enjoy more of the ball, with six of their last eight games ending with Aberdeen boasting more than 50% of a share compared to a season average of 48.33%. The issue is what they are doing with it.

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