Falkirk can continue their chase for a top-half finish when they travel to face Dundee at Dens Park on 27th December.
The Bairns are 7th in the Premiership, sitting on 24 points, looking down on the Dark Blues in 10th place on 13 points.Dundee Form Guide
Using the Dundee v Falkirk Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the hosts have been far better at home than on the road. Indeed, they have won three of their eight home matches, including a famous victory over Celtic, so should not be taken with a light touch at Dens Park.
1-0 Loss vs Motherwell (A) – Premiership
2-2 Draw vs Livingston (A) – Premiership
3-1 Loss vs Aberdeen (H) – Premiership
1-0 Loss vs Celtic (A) – Premiership
3-1 Win vs St Mirren (H) – Premiership
Dundee’s Recent League Matches:
Motherwell vs Dundee
Dundee really struggled away to Motherwell, and a 1-0 defeat was a fair reflection on their overall performance. Offensively, they were extremely limited and created just 0.12 xG while at the other end of the park they conceded 1.64 xG, which is largely in line with their season average of 1.63.
Against a side that has thrived defensively in recent times, they struggled to penetrate. Although they had 317 passes with a 78.9% completion rate – exceeding their season-average in both statistics (311.7 and 77.9%, respectively) – they mustered only five shots. Those came from 22.3 metres out on average with an average xG of 0.024. Both of these statistics are worse than their usual 21.5m and 0.104.
Dundee’s issue was with where their possession came and how it was used. Only 20 passes were completed into the final third, indicating they had much of the ball in deeper areas. Indeed, 128 lateral passes were attempted compared to 109.4 on average this season while they attempted fewer forward passes (110) with respect to their normal (112.1). Conversely, their number of progressive passes was higher than average, hitting 58 as opposed to their usual 53.3. This indicates they were more direct than usual, but it did not translate into being more dangerous.
Motherwell’s stifling defensive work was the key difference in the game as the Dark Blues otherwise largely produced an average game defensively. This was achieved by pressing more intensely that they typically do. Passes completed per defensive action (PPDA) is a key measure of how hard a team works out of possession, with lower figures indicating more work. Dundee hit 11.44 compared to a season average of 21.16, though it ultimately brought them no success.
Livingston vs Dundee
Dundee picked up an important point against bottom side Livingston on the road thanks to a 2-2 draw in West Lothian. Although they mustered only five shots (three on target), these came from the two big chances they created in the match, helping them to generate 1.01 xG. While they largely managed to keep the Lions at arm’s length, the home side’s weighty 14 shots told, even if they produced just 0.96 xG – the only occasion in the last 15 league games they have held their opponents to under 1 xG.
This game was conditioned by Dundee’s two early goals. After Cam Congreve struck the second after 18 minutes, they managed only one more shot in the whole game as they largely sat back and sought to protect their advantage. Before that moment, Livi had only mustered one shot but the hosts were increasingly allowed to dictate the game and peppered the visiting goal in the last 17 minutes, with six efforts in that time.
Pressley’s side only had 38.2% of possession over the course of the game, but they were relatively pro-active out of possession until the final 30 minutes. At this point, their PPDA dropped first to 14.3 and then to an enormous 67 in the closing quarter of an hour as the pressure was poured on them. Concurrently, they became increasingly reliant on long balls, with 27% of their passes between minutes 61-75 falling into that category.
One feature of their attacking play that stood out in this game was the crossing of left winger Tony Yogane, who completed all three of his crosses and grabbed an assist for Congreve through one of them.
Dundee’s One to Watch:
Cam Congreve: When it comes to posing a threat for the hosts, Welshman Congreve is their likeliest menace. The attacking midfielder has one goal and one assist in his last three matches for the Dark Blues, while he posts a SofaScore rating of 6.8 or higher in four of his last five outings – the type of consistency Dundee will need more of in their relegation battle.
Final Thoughts:
Dundee can have few complaints about their place in the table, given that in terms of expected points, they sit firmly at the foot of the standings with 14. That’s one more point than they have gathered, but Kilmarnock and Livingston, who lie below them in the actual table, have underperformed to an even greater extent.
Their big issue is in attack. Their xG for the season is 13.72, which is well below any other team in the league. Next worst are Livingston on 18.16, some 32.36% better off. Dundee are bottom of the league in terms of shots per 90 with 6.78 and second bottom in terms of xG per shot with 0.104. This is an alarming combination.
Defensively, they do have some statistics in their favour. Most notable of those is that they face the lowest xG per shot in the whole league with 0.111. This indicates that the quality of shot they typically face does not tend to have a high chance of going in. The issue here is that the sheer volume of shots they allow, 13.56 per 90 on average, means that their overall xGA is the 3rd-highest in the league on 29.39.
Goalkeeper Jon McCracken is not having a good season, either. With -0.13 goals prevented per 90, the shot-stopper ranks 11th of the 14 Premiership goalkeepers who have played at least five matches. Don’t expect him to build out from the back, meanwhile. With 221 long passes, he leads the whole of the Premiership in this category.
The Dark Blues do have that decent home record to lean on for hope ahead of this clash, though they have still generated only 0.93 xG, on average in each match they have played at Dens Park while facing 1.41 against.
Falkirk should, therefore, travel with a sense of hope that they can heap more misery on the hosts.
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