Falkirk’s clashes with Dunfermline are typically spicy affairs, but they have never come bigger than Saturday’s Scottish Cup semi-final clash at Hampden.
The Pars are well on course for a play-off spot as they lie 3rd in the Championship on 47 points, while Falkirk are 6th in the Premiership on 46.
Dunfermline Form Guide
Using the Dunfermline v Falkirk Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Pars have already beaten two Premiership opponents in the form of Aberdeen and Hibs to progress to Hampden. In league action, they have picked up an average of 1.29 points on the road this season, winning six times from 17 attempts in normal time.
2-2 Draw vs Airdrie (A) – Championship
2-0 Loss vs Partick Thistle (A) – Championship
3-0 Win vs Ayr United (A) – Championship
3-1 Win vs Morton (H) – Championship
2-2 Draw vs Ross County (A) – Championship
Dunfermline’s Recent League Matches:
Airdrie vs Dunfermline
Dunfermline fought back from 2-0 down against Airdrie on Tuesday to secure a point via a 2-2 draw. The assignment looked difficult initially as they fell behind after 12 minutes and conceded again shortly after the break, yet goals from Josh Cooper and Lucas Fyfe secured a draw in a match in which Neil Lennon picked a fringe team and kept the powder of many of his leading players dry by only making three changes.
The Pars had plenty of the ball in the first half but offered almost nothing in the way of a serious goalscoring threat. During this period, they had only two shots, despite 51% of the ball and four corners. Airdrie’s only shot on target, meanwhile, resulted in a goal.
After the break, the pattern of the game did not shift greatly. Dunfermline’s share of possession actually rose slightly to 53%, but they were not significantly more penetrative with their attacking play. They were, however, able to make the most of the chances they created by scoring two of their three shots.
But their chances of picking up the three points were effectively ended a minute after the break by Airdrie striking through Chris Mochrie. It would be the Diamonds’ second and last shot on target.
Partick Thistle vs Dunfermline
Dunfermline were well beaten 2-0 by Partick Thistle at Firhill, though given the changes the Fife side made to their squad for the game and the strong home record posted by their hosts, this should have come as little surprise. Lennon would have hoped his team might have put up more resistance as the match was effectively over inside 22 minutes, as Alex Samuel scored a brace.
It was a match that Dunfermline sat back in initially. The formation line was set at 43 metres in the first 15 minutes, while they allowed 20.5 passes per defensive action (PPDA), indicating that they were not working intensely out of possession. The Pars’ season average sits at 10.24 PPDA.
After falling two goals behind rapidly, the defensive line pushed higher, and the PPDA rose notably, particularly in the second period, when it reached 10.6. It was also notable that Dunfermline dominated much more of the ball in the second half, opting to go long with far less frequency as their long ball % dropped from 20% in the first half to 13% in the second half. Pass accuracy rose accordingly from 70% to 79%, but there was also a sense that Partick were happy to sit off as the Pars caused little trouble in front of goal, generating only 0.33 xG as they struggled to get back into the game.
One thing that was notable throughout the match was how Dunfermline were dominated in duels. In total, they won 48% of them compared to a season average of 48.6%, but their tally against Partick skewed upwards dramatically in the closing 15 minutes when the home side eased off.
With this low duel win count and the lack of intensity in the press, were players protecting themselves for Hampden?
Dunfermlines’ One to Watch:
Callumn Morrison: All eyes will be on former Falkirk winger Callumn Morrison on Saturday. He’s back in Scottish football in January with the Bairns’ great rivals, and the attacker is also in excellent form. He’s scored five goals in his last five games, making him Dunfermline’s joint 2nd-top scorer behind the injured Andy Tod. Following his controversial departure from the Bairns, he will be out to get one over on his former club.
Final Thoughts:
Dunfermline might have failed to win either of their last two Championship games, but John McGlynn will have learned little of note about Lennon’s side from those encounters. The Pars boss rotated his team heavily for both of those games, aiming to protect his players for this clash.
Given the intense nature of Dunfermline’s recent schedule, that’s understandable. This will be the Fife side’s fifth game in 14 days, which is a heavy fixture list given the significant number of injuries they are carrying.
So what should Falkirk expect from this team? A 3-4-3 formation, or some variant of that system, has been used almost exclusively since the beginning of the year. The 1-0 Scottish Cup win over Hibernian back on 17th January was the tipping point for this to come into force.
Dunfermline are a team in good form. Prior to Lennon rotating his side in recent matches, they had outperformed their opponents on xG in six of their previous seven Championship games.
Perhaps the most instructive game that McGlynn will look at to get an idea of how Saturday’s opponents will set up tactically is the Hibs clash from January. They were happy to concede 64% of possession in that match but were proactive in their defensive approach, with a PPDA of 8.92. With 18.5% of their passes going long in that game, they were slightly more direct than usual (15.18%).
Falkirk should be looking forward to a game in which they are playing an energetic side that are not particularly concerned with controlling the ball, but who have been effective at creating chances when they do have the ball.
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