Falkirk open 2026 with a home clash against Jimmy Thelin’s Aberdeen.
The Dons had been on a good run of form until losing to Hibs last time out, leaving them 7th in the Premiership on 25 points. The Pittodrie club are one place and one point ahead of the Bairns, who will overtake them with a victory.Aberdeen Form Guide
Using the Falkirk v Aberdeen Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Dons’ form all season has been erratic – but particularly on the road. From their nine away Premiership matches, they have picked up four wins but have lost their other five games. They are the only side without a draw on their travels this term.
2-0 Loss vs Hibs (A) – Premiership
1-1 Draw vs Dundee United (H) – Premiership
3-1 Loss vs Celtic (A) – Premiership
3-0 Loss vs Sparta Prague (A) – Conference League
2-1 Win vs Kilmarnock (H) – Premiership
Aberdeen’s Recent League Matches:
Hibs v Aberdeen
Aberdeen rounded out 2025 with a 2-0 loss at Easter Road, in which they hardly sparkled. Although they generated a respectable 1 xG, 39% of this came in stoppage time at the end of the match, by which point the game had already escaped their grasp.
While Thelin set his side out in a 5-3-2 formation, one of the defining aspects of their performance was how deep Marko Lazetic played. Deployed as a second striker, his average position was on the toes of the midfielders, leaving Jesper Karlsson isolated in attack.
This formation was reflected in a counterpunching approach. Aberdeen’s possession share of 41% and first half PPDA of 13.9 was symptomatic of a team content to absorb pressure and play directly on the break, with 10% of their passes over the course of the match going long. Those figures are not atypical for Thelin’s side; their norm this season has been 48.3% possession, 11.98 PPDA and 12.9% long balls.
Defensively, the setup worked effectively at locking Hibs down until they took the lead through Thibault Klidje on the hour mark. To that point in the game, Aberdeen were marginally ahead on the xG count, but they were punished for giving the million-pound man a chance worth 0.47 xG.
When the Dons did get forward, they were overwhelmingly better when they exploited the left side of their attack. A total of 77% of their xG came from that area, which is where 51.5% of their attacks were targeted.
Aberdeen vs Dundee United
The defining aspect of Aberdeen’s tactics when they drew 1-1 at home with Dundee United a couple of days after Christmas was a change in shape. Having regularly used three centre backs since September, they switched to a 4-2-3-1, which Thelin employed throughout.
In many ways, circumstances went against Aberdeen in this match. They dominated the first half, giving up just one shot and two crosses into the box, yet United scored with that sole effort, changing the complexion of the match.
Chance creation was a weakness in the first half and improved in the second. Just 0.1 xG was fashioned in the first half from 74% possession, but after the break, 1.37 xG arrived from 67% of the ball.
Aberdeen became notably more proactive out of possession in the second half. Passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), dropped to 6.8 compared to 11.4 in the first period and a season average of 11.98.
One feature of their play was how far forward left back Graeme Shinnie operated. His average position was the same level as Topi Keskinen, who was the right winger. This pointed to a strong bias for Aberdeen to attack down the left side, where 44% of their attacks came. However, those generated only 18% of their xG. They were far more effective in the middle, with 78% of their xG coming from this area.
A final point to highlight is the dogged defensive work of Adil Aouchiche, who completed 13 recoveries in the Dundee United half – more than twice that of any other player.
Aberdeen’s One to Watch:
Stuart Armstrong: Aberdeen are struggling for a consistent attacking force, but Armstrong has been an eye-catching player in recent weeks. He leads Aberdeen on five big chances created for the season and has three Premiership assists to his credit this term, two of which came in December. With his last eight SofaScore ratings coming between 6.5-7.5, he is the steady performer the Dons need.
Final Thoughts:
Aberdeen’s away matches have produced only 19 goals, which is the lowest figure among all teams in the Premiership this season. Combine this with the fact that Falkirk’s last seven games have only seen one team find the net, and this would tend to suggest this could be a cagey affair in which the opening goal will be even more critical than usual. But is that really the case?
While results continue to be erratic, Aberdeen have generated one or more xG across each of their last seven Premiership games, pointing to at least some level of consistency in performance. A lack of firepower is undermining Thelin’s efforts, though. Aberdeen have underperformed on their season-long xG by 9.22 goals this season.
Why has this been the case? A failure to get shots on target is a major culprit. With just 34.1% of their efforts working the opposition goalkeeper, only St Mirren (32.2%) have a poorer record for shot accuracy. They have also been a little luckless, with six shots hitting the post – the 3rd-highest figure in the league.
There is evidence of a lack of variation in Aberdeen’s play, too. Only 10 of their 223 shots this season have not come from open play, while they have mustered just 21 headed efforts – well below the league average of 34.08 and only ahead of Falkirk (20).
Despite this, the Dons are roughly where they should be in the table. They have an expected points tally of 25.3, and have picked up 25 points. This is because they have conceded only 23 goals from 29.66 xGA.
The overall picture is, therefore, of a team whose games should be producing more goals.
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