After defeat against Hibernian last weekend, Falkirk face the maroon half of Edinburgh when Hearts visit on Saturday evening.
The Jambos are the shock table-toppers after beating Celtic last weekend, sitting on 35 points after 16 games. The Bairns lie seventh with 21 points.Hearts Form Guide
Using the Falkirk v Hearts Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Derek McInnes’ side has been far from their best in recent weeks, despite losing only one game in 90 minutes all season. There is a sense, meanwhile, that last Sunday’s Celtic Park victory may just have shifted the momentum of their campaign.
2-1 Win vs Celtic (A) – Premiership
1-1 Draw vs Kilmarnock (H) – Premiership
0-0 Draw vs Motherwell (A) – Premiership
1-0 Loss vs Aberdeen (A) – Premiership
1-1 Draw vs Dundee United (H) – Premiership
Hearts’ Recent League Matches:
Celtic vs Hearts
A trip to Celtic Park was always likely to be a unique type of match for Hearts, with Derek McInnes’ side expected to spend long periods of the game with their backs against the wall. Furthermore, with Wilfried Nancy taking charge of the hosts for the first time, they were going into the unknown somewhat. McInnes made a tactical tweak, abandoning his usual 4-4-2 and going with a 4-2-3-1 instead – the same system he used to win away to Rangers.
After a difficult start to the game that saw Alexander Schwolow perform a huge stop from Daizen Maeda, a shot worth 0.5 post-shot xG, Hearts defended superbly. The Japanese’s double effort early on accounted for 0.46 of the Hoops’ 0.61xG in the first 85 minutes of the game, underlining how well they restricted Celtic. Indeed, while the overall shot count favoured the hosts 14-7, both teams had six efforts with an xG of 0.05 or over.
This was achieved by defending deep and rather passively. Hearts’ average formation line was set at 43.2m and dropped steadily to 41m by the end of the match. Indeed, the average position of substitute Frankie Kent, who played 18 minutes, was almost behind that of Schwolow, highlighting how much they were defending their box late on. Hearts, meanwhile, had just 31% of the ball, and the passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) – a key measurement of defensive intensity – sat at just 19.3 compared to a season average of 9.57.
The Jambos were far more efficient than their opponents and moved into the lead with Claudio Braga’s strike shortly before the break. With an xG of 0.61, this was greater than the home team’s entire first half tally of 0.5.
Thereafter, Hearts were happy to surrender possession to Celtic while still showing ambition to play on the counter, with their 0.3 attacks per minute holding steady after the break, showing that although they had less of the ball, they were determined to make equal use of it. And they did just that as Oisin McEntee headed home a corner to give them insurance against Kieran Tierney’s late reply as Celtic increasingly poured forward.
Hearts vs Kilmarnock
Hearts could have few complaints that they came up short for the win against Kilmarnock, despite Bruce Anderson’s equalising goal in a 1-1 draw coming, frustratingly, in the final minute of the game. Killie were more than holding their own when Lawrence Shankland gave the home side the lead, and Anderson’s late leveller was reflective of late pressure being put on the Tynecastle club. Indeed, Hearts’ 1.05 xG was dwarfed by their opponents’ 2.29 xG, showing the Rugby Park side were good value for their win.
The home side were busy in the early stages of the game as they mustered 0.6 attacks per minute. Despite this, they consistently broke against the defence of their opponents. By half time, they had managed five largely feeble shots despite 62% possession. As a defensive force, they were very proactive, with their PPDA 7.5 as an average in the first half, when they won 53% of their duels.
Early in the second period, Hearts stepped up their aggression. They won 60% of their duels in the first 15 minutes after the break and completed 0.6 recoveries per minute. It was during this period that Lawrence Shankland struck.
Hearts pressed for a spell but struggled to respond to the increased aggression from Kilmarnock, which saw the guests dominate duels in the closing half hour, winning 58% between 61-75 minutes, then 55% between 76 and full time. Kilmarnock dominated possession for the first time in the game during that last spell, and with Hearts’ PPDA dropping to 10.2 during this quarter of an hour, the hosts took advantage to level.
Their retreat late in the game might have been caused by fatigue after pressing so eagerly previously, but also a lack of confidence after failing to win any of their previous three.
Hearts’ One to Watch:
Craig Halkett: Coming back from serious injury this season, Halkett is getting back to his strongest form, such that there are calls for him to travel as part of Scotland’s World Cup squad. A mainstay of a defence that has conceded only 13 goals in 16 games, he posts 1.3 interceptions per game and a team-leading 8.5 clearances.
Final Thoughts:
Off the back of last weekend’s win at Celtic, Hearts are likely to be a team high in confidence, yet they will face a very different challenge to the one they had last week. Consequently, the 4-2-3-1 system used at Parkhead is likely to be abandoned and the regular 4-4-2 reinstalled.
Much has been made of Hearts’ recent dip, and there is certainly evidence to suggest that this is a side not firing on all cylinders at the moment. The Jambos average 13.25 shots per game in the Premiership this season, but have hit this figure in only one of their last five outings, while they have surpassed their normal xG of 1.74 just once, too. Ironically, this came in the 1-0 loss against Aberdeen.
There are two reasons why much is being made of the Edinburgh club’s recent four-match winless run. Firstly, Hearts were well positioned at the top of the Premiership when their ‘crash’ came, and secondly, it came after an outstanding period when they generated an xG of 1.9 or more in eight of 10 matches – including their 3-0 win over Falkirk in September.
There’s evidence to suggest that teams are increasingly getting joy from sitting back against Hearts. In this recent run, three of the four games they have failed to win have seen them post 60% possession or more. We’ve also seen sides start to become passive out of possession against the Jambos, with Killie having a PPDA of 19.21 and Motherwell hitting 22.86 in the same metric.
Consequently, Hearts are not only having fewer shots, but they’re typically coming from further away, generally making them less likely to find the net. This has been particularly pronounced at Tynecastle, where their average shot distance over their last three games has been beyond 19m. Hearts’ overall season average is 17.13m for comparison, while allowed to play on the break at Celtic last week, it was just 15.21m.
With all this in mind, it will be interesting to see how John McGlynn approaches this game. Will he follow the trend of clubs trying to stifle the Premiership leaders, or will he stick to his principles of pressing and take his chances with what comes next?
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