After knocking Hearts out of the Scottish Cup last weekend, it’s another Edinburgh assignment for John McGlynn’s Bairns on Saturday as they face Hibs.
The Hibees sit fifth in the Premiership on 35 points, meaning Falkirk, who start the game one place and five points behind, can dramatically close the gap with a win.
Hibernian Form Guide
Using the Hearts v Falkirk Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Hibs are marginally stronger at Easter Road than on their travels. The big difference is in the number of goals they score. The Hibees have netted 22 times at home, winning five of 11 games. On the road, they have scored just 15.
1-0 Loss vs Dunfermline (A) – Scottish Cup
1-1 Draw vs Motherwell (H) – Premiership
3-1 Win vs Kilmarnock (A) – Premiership
2-0 Win vs Aberdeen (H) – Premiership
3-2 Win vs Hearts (H) – Premiership
Hibernian’s Recent League Matches:
Hibernian vs Motherwell
A home encounter against in-form Motherwell always promised to be an interesting match, and so it proved as the teams played out a 1-1 draw. It was a devilishly tight game overall, with Hibs fashioning 1.57 xG from 11 shots while their opponents posting 1.43 xG from 12 efforts.
One area where Hibs were particularly active was in the wide sectors. They made 28 crosses, completing 50% of those, in what was a clear decision to use the wings more. Typically this season, they have only delivered 17.3 crosses per league game, and this was their joint second-highest figure in that regard. Jordan Obita was the main threat, completing six of his nine crosses.
This approach allowed the Hibees to get a high number of shots away from inside the box. Of their 11 efforts, nine came from in the opponents’ penalty area. Their average shot distance was just 13.75m, well below their season average of 17.08m. Hibs produced four big chances, including Kieran Bowie’s goal, which came from a low cross from Obita and was worth 0.27 xG.
Hibs varied their pressing based on the state of the game. During the first half, they were persistently above their season average of 13.6 for passes per defensive action (PPDA), indicating that they were not pressing their opponents significantly. This stance shifted dramatically in the second period after Well scored, but following the equaliser, they resorted to their more passive stance, finishing the game with 11.28 PPDA, largely thanks to their intense 30-minute burst.
Kilmarnock vs Hibernian
Hibs went to struggling Kilmarnock and secured a resounding 3-1 victory at Rugby Park. It was a well deserved success, with David Gray’s side generating 2.65 xG and giving up 0.68. They were slightly more forward-thinking in their approach for this match, with Junior Hoilett used as an outright attacking midfielder, abandoning the flat five across the middle that they often prefer.
There was a clear desire to play this game on the front foot, which was reflected by a PPDA of 5.8 in the opening period of the match. Furthermore, they managed four of their 13 shots in the first quarter of an hour. A strong off-the-ball intensity was maintained in the first half, but when it dipped to 58 in the opening 15 minutes of the second period, Killie levelled up. Hibs thereafter picked up the pace and scored two more goals.
Even against the team at the bottom of the Premiership in terms of ball possession, Hibs only dictated 54% of the ball. While this is above their season average of 47.95%, it meant Kilmarnock had more of the play than they are used to. Again, Hibs’ express start was evident here as they had 81% of the ball in the first half of the game before allowing their opponents 58% possession after the break.
Hibs’ management of the game late on, when they led 2-1 but their opponents were down to 10 men, was also interesting. They were happy to manage their advantage, having just 34% of the ball and dropping their formation line to 41m, far deeper than their 45.6m average over the course of the game.
Hibs’ One to Watch
Elie Youan: The winger can blow hot and cold but has been in form in recent Premiership games, scoring 7.4 or more on SofaScore in three successive games. Over that run, he has chipped in with two goals and an assist. A versatile forward who can play across the forward line, he could pop up anywhere and will have to be closely monitored, particularly with his confidence high.
Final Thoughts
Falkirk should look forward to a game in which they are likely to get their fair share of possession. Hibs are a comparatively reactive team and are happy to sit back if they feel the circumstances dictate it.
In terms of possession, they rank only 6th in the league on 47.8%, below Falkirk on 50.1%. This is matched by their approach off the ball, which verges on passive. With a PPDA of 13.6, they are a side that like to get players behind the ball rather than actively go out and seek possession.
Hibs are a side that don’t like to make a difference in one-on-one situations. Indeed, with 381 take ons, they sit 10th in the league in this particular statistic. When they do choose to beat their opponent, they have a tendency to be strong at it, with a league-high 56.7% success rate.
So where do their shots originate? With 79 key passes, defined as a pass that immediately creates a goalscoring opportunity for a team-mate, this season, they sit 2nd behind only Celtic among Premiership sides. Nicky Cadden leads the way with 1,0 but there is a strong spread across the forward areas otherwise, indicating that there are multiple danger points, including Josh Mulligan, Bowie and Jamie McGrath.
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