Falkirk have a chance to extend their lead over Kilmarnock in the William Hill Premiership when the sides meet in matchday 12 this Saturday. The Bairns sit in seventh place on 12 points after returning to the top-flight in the summer, one place and two points better off than their weekend visitors.
Kilmarnock’s Form Guide
Using the Falkirk vs Kilmarnock Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Killie is a side struggling for form. Stuart Kettlewell’s side has lost each of their last three outings and have picked up just two Premiership victories this term.
1-0 Loss vs Aberdeen (H) – Premiership
3-1 Loss vs Rangers (A) – Premiership
3-0 Loss vs Hearts (H) – Premiership
2-0 Win vs St Mirren (H) – Premiership
2-0 Win vs Dundee United (A) – Premiership
Â
Kilmarnock’s Recent League Matches:
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
Â
Â
Â
Â
Stuart Kettlewell felt his side were unfortunate to lose to Aberdeen on Wednesday, and the statistics paint a similar picture. After conceding early in the game, Killie went on to dominate the game, generating a season-high figure of 2.4 xG, having only managed above 1.6 on one previous occasion in the league.
The Ayrshire side’s success in creating a number of high-quality chances came from the fact that they were able to get close to goal. Their 11 shots attempted were above their season average of 8.02, but the crucial factor was that the average shot distance was just 11.3m. Having bossed 57% of possession, compared to a season average of 43.8%, they created high-quality chances but were unable to take them.
It was notable that Killie possessed a huge threat from set pieces, and corners in particular. Five of their seven corners produced a shot. This conversation rate of 71.4% compares to a season average of 27.7% and followed up a match against Rangers in which both corners they had produced shots.
Kilmarnock were also far more proactive without the ball than usual. Their average defensive line was at 52.7m compared to Aberdeen’s 41.5. As such, their PPDA, which measures pressing intensity, was 9.9. Their normal level has been 13.6, indicating they were more proactive than usual, although trailing for so long likely impacted this, as their PPDA was 15.8 in the first 15 minutes.
Â
Â
Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Â
Â
Kilmarnock had a hard task of facing Rangers in Danny Rohl’s first Ibrox match in charge of the Gers, and they struggled to keep pace with the Glasgow side. Nevertheless, they were more competitive than the final score suggested, with Rangers creating just 0.95 xG – a figure below Killie’s average of 1.29 per game.
This was achieved by sitting deep and trying to frustrate their hosts. Kettlewell was happy for his team to cede possession to the Gers, having just 23% of the ball. They attempted just 188 passes and there were only three periods of play when they kept the ball for more than 20 seconds, compared to Rangers’ 35.
Unable to keep the ball, Killie adopted a direct strategy that was reliant upon long passes and set pieces. Indeed, George Stanger’s equaliser came from a corner. The isolated chances that were created tallied 0.69 xG, of which their goal accounted for more than half of that (0.35). Only 7% of their attacks reached the Rangers’ penalty area.
One aspect of the game that Kettlewell will feel disappointed with his team in is duels. They won only 28% of loose ball duels, suggesting that they were physically outmatched and were less sharp than their opponents.
Â
Kilmarnock’s One to Watch:
Robbie Deas: Kilmarnock’s centre-back is set to be a pivotal presence at both ends of the pitch. As an attacking threat, the former Celtic youngster was Killie’s most dangerous player against Aberdeen, registering 0.96 xG. He is also a solid customer at the back, completing 6.4 clearances and 1.8 tackles per match.
Final Thoughts:
Kilmarnock’s threat in this game clearly comes from set pieces, and most notably corners, where they have had a good deal of joy in each of their last two matches. The positive news for Falkirk is that Killie win below the league average of 4.29 corners per match, but the Bairns will have to be vigilant both to keep their opponents’ corner count low and to deal with the situations that arise.
From open play, Kettlewell’s side are struggling to create chances. They have offered just 8.02 shots per game, which is well below the league average of 10.32. While Falkirk have the 2nd-leakiest defence in the league in terms of xGA (17.06), John McGlynn should feel reasonably confident that the visiting side can be contained.
Out of possession, Killie are one of the least proactive teams in the league. They have a PPDA of 13.61, which suggests that Falkirk should be able to impose their trademark possession football onto their opponents.
The problem that the Bairns will face is how to break down a defence that is likely to be deep lying. Given the evidence of Kilmarnock’s lack of creativity from open play, it seems likely that the home full backs will be able to get forwards and create opportunities to overload the flanks.
Falkirk will also need to take advantage of Killie’s low defensive duel win rate of 60.3%, which ranks only 9th in the league and trails their own 63.2% figure.
You can find more high-quality football statistical previews, Football Betting Tips, and Football Match Centres over at Andy’s Bet Club. 18+, Please Gamble Responsibly.
Join the Falkirk Supporters Society
