Falkirk climbed to an impressive fifth place in the Premiership table with a strong win over Kilmarnock last weekend and will attempt to maintain their momentum when they face bottom side Livingston on Saturday. Livi’s only win this season came against the Bairns in West Lothian and accounts for nearly half of their seven points – eight fewer than John McGlynn’s in-form hosts.
Livingston Form Guide
Using the Falkirk vs Livingston Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Livingston are seeking their first away win of the season. With three draws in six away games, plus a 2-2 draw at home against Hibs last week, they cannot be taken lightly.
2-2 Draw vs Hibernian (H) – Premiership
2-1 Loss vs Motherwell (H) – Premiership
4-0 Loss vs Hibernian (A) – Premiership
1-1 Draw vs Dundee United (A) – Premiership
2-1 Loss vs Rangers (H) – Premiership
Livingston’s Recent League Matches:
Livingston vs Hibernian
Livingston arguably turned in their best performance of the season last weekend as they picked up a 2-2 draw with Hibernian thanks to a late Graham Carey penalty.
David Martindale’s side went toe-to-toe with Hibs and deserved more from the match. They generated an impressive 2.69 xG over the course of the fixture compared to 0.78 from their opponents. Although they had a similar shot count (10-7), it was the West Lothian side who were better at creating big opportunities.
In terms of possession, they matched their Edinburgh opponents but were shaded 47-53. The Lions made up for this with a slightly more direct approach than their guests, yet they actually enjoyed more spells of 20 seconds plus possession than David Gray’s side, showing that their game plan was far more than kick and rush.
This approach allowed 24% of all attacks to finish with shots, while they also had shots from two of their six corners.
At the other end they were disciplined in their defensive work and not content to allow Hibs to camp in their half. Livi allowed only 7.1 PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action), a measure of pressing intensity in which the lower number indicates a more proactive response, well under their season average of 11.26. They also won possession in their opponents’ half 25 times compared to Hibernian’s 22 in another example of them going after the game.
Livingston vs Motherwell
Livingston were unlucky to lose to Motherwell at home 2-1 in a fixture they took to their opponents, but conceded late in.
David Martindale’s side were much the stronger of the two outfits on show in terms of creating goalscoring chances. This is illustrated by the 2.86 xG they created from nine shots, indicating that while they had a comparatively low shot count, the opportunities they did have were of a good quality.
With influential winger Lewis Smith only on the bench after injury, Livingston bucked their season-long trend and attacked primarily down the left. They generated 36% of their xG down that flank compared to just 2% down the right, which is generally their more dominant side. Full back Cristian Montano played his part in this, delivering five crosses into the box, while left-sided attacker Stevie May had four.
Moussa Sylla was Livingston’s key creative force in midfield. The former Dundee star completed two key passes, keeping things neat and tidy with an average pass length of 14.3m – the second-lowest figure in his team.
At the other end, they rode their luck to some extent. Although Motherwell managed 2.26 xG, the visitors only hit the target with two of their 14 shots. Despite this wayward finishing, the Steelmen got the win.
Livingston’s One to Watch:
Lewis Smith: Livingston focus the majority of their attacks down the right because that’s the area in which winger Lewis Smith tends to operate. He is direct and exciting, attempting 6.57 dribbles per 90 and completing 64%. With 3.76 crosses per game, he is Livi’s likeliest creative force, and with 2.35 shots per 90, he also brings a goal threat of his own.
Final Thoughts:
Livingston’s reputation as a stuffy, physical side under David Martindale hasn’t really been lived up to this season. While it’s true that they have the highest number of fouls (167) and yellow cards (31) in the Premiership, they are not a team that particularly likes to sit deep and be reactive.
What we can expect at the weekend is a huge number of duels. Livi and Falkirk lead the Premiership in this regard with 823 and 760 respectively, with the league average sitting at 660.83. This is no bad thing for The Bairns. John McGlynn’s side rank third in the league for percentage success in these situations with 63.8%, while their opponents prop up the table in this regard on 58.3%.
The visiting side will be direct in their approach when in possession. With 611 long passes this season, no team gets the ball forward more quickly than Martindale’s outfit. They are overwhelmingly most successful at getting crosses in from their right flank, with 93 of their 156 (59.6%) deliveries coming from this area. No other side in the league is as right-side biased.
Livingston, meanwhile, have the second lowest shot count in the league with just 90 or 7.4 per match, but what they are good at is creating high value scoring chances. This is reflected by the fact that they are eighth in total xG on 12.78 and have scored 13 goals. A better indication of their ability to generate good scoring opportunities is the fact that their xG per shot is 0.142 – second-highest in the league behind only Motherwell.
While Livingston are comparatively good at creating strong chances, they have by far the leakiest defence in the league. Not only have they conceded 22 goals, their xG against of 23.54 is 5.75 worse than any other side in the league, with the typical shot against them worth a hefty 0.16 xG.
Expect a game of big tackles and big chances at the Falkirk Stadium.
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