Falkirk’s final game of the season sees them host Rangers in the Premiership.
The Bairns will finish 6th, having gathered 49 points ahead of this final match of the season. Rangers, meanwhile, are destined to finish a distant 3rd, having lost four league matches in succession for the first time since 1983. They have 69 points.
Rangers Form Guide
Using the Falkirk v Rangers Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, it’s clear that too many draws on the road have been a major problem for the visiting side this season. After drawing seven of their 16 games before the split, things have got worse against their top six opponents, with defeats against Hearts and Celtic defining moments of the season for Danny Rohl’s men.
2-1 Loss vs Hibs (H) – Premiership
3-1 Loss vs Celtic (A) – Premiership
2-1 Loss vs Hearts (A) – Premiership
3-2 Loss vs Motherwell (H) – Premiership
6-3 Win vs Falkirk (A) – Premiership
Rangers’ Recent League Matches:
Rangers v Hibs
Rangers might have lost 2-1 to Hibs at Ibrox on Wednesday, but their performance was considerably better than the result suggested. While they produced another shaky defensive performance, giving up 1.93 xGA, they generated 3.22 xG of their own but were unable to profit from their opportunities.
In total, Rangers had 20 shots, eight of which hit the target. Averaging 15.38 shots this season, that was an above-average display from Danny Rohl’s side. They also commanded an impressive 72.5% of the ball, which is the 2nd-highest figure they have mustered in any league match this season. Once again, though, there was evidence of Rangers’ form falling away in the second half of the game. Only seven of their shots came in the second half, with these totalling at 1.1 xG.
Much was made of James Tavernier’s absence from the matchday squad, yet when Rangers did attack, it most typically came down the right. Of their 46 attacks, 18 came from this flank. The danger, though, came down the middle, with 59% of their xG generated in this section of the pitch.
It was also notable that Rangers adopted a more measured approach in this match. Only 5.59% of their passes went long, while they boasted 6.61 average passes per possession, highlighting some degree of patience with the ball.
They were also slightly busier than usual out of possession, with 7.67 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which compares to a season average of 8.95.
Celtic v Rangers
Rangers’ faint title hopes were ended across Glasgow last Sunday as they went down to a 3-1 loss against rivals Celtic. It was the third game in succession in which they have won the xG battle, but lost. This time, they generated 2.35 and allowed 1.91.
The Gers made a whirlwind beginning to the fixture, as they have often done in recent times. They mustered three shots and a goal from Mickey Moore in the opening 10 minutes.
One notable aspect of this game was how Rangers’ pressing dropped off dramatically in the middle part of the game. While they allowed 11.2 PPDA on average, this climbed to 17.0 and then 20.5, either side of half time, indicating an alarming loss of intensity to their defensive work. During that lull, Celtic scored twice.
In the closing stages, they adopted a higher formation line. Over the course of the game, they averaged 47.4 metres, but in the final 15 minutes that was as high as 59m. Of course, this came about due to the situational nature of the match. Celtic were protecting what they had, and Rangers needed to win to stand any chance of finishing 2nd.
Rangers’ One to Watch:
Mikey Moore: The Young Player of the Year will likely play his last match for Rangers in this encounter before going back to Tottenham, with the 18-year-old having made an impressive impact at Ibrox. He has scored seven times from 4.97 xG and is averaging 1.8 shots per game and 0.8 shots on target. The Englishman continues to show a strong appetite to impress, crucial at this time of the season with nothing on the line.
Final Thoughts
It’s only been a month since Rangers last met Falkirk, so not too much has changed since then, except perhaps Danny Rohl’s job is now under threat. After the 6-3 in Falkirk, the Gers were in a far happier state, having climbed to within just a point of Hearts.
But Falkirk should be wary. Rangers have outgunned their opponents in terms of xG in each of their last four outings. While this has not yielded the Ibrox side a single point, it does point to them being in significantly better form than their results are showing.
Indeed, they have underperformed their xG in each of the last four games – scoring five goals from 10.33 xG – while their opponents have outperformed their xG in each fixture, netting 10 times for just 5.87 xG.
While they have generally healthy numbers across the board statistically over this difficult period, one clear problem area for the Gers is the sheer volume of goals they are conceding. They have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last six Premiership matches, as well as nine of their last 11 in the competition.
Finding a clear explanation for this is challenging from the stats, but it’s notable that their defensive duels won in the last four successive games have been well below their season average of 63.1%. They have not been above 59.6% in this regard, making some suggestion that their physicality has dipped.
The Gers have also been less assured in possession and more willing to attack directly. While their season average for long pass sits at 8.73%, they have been above 10.9% in three of their last four. They have played a mixture of defensive styles over this period, so it appears a conscious choice that is helping to create better chances that are simply not being taken.
While they beat Falkirk 6-3 little over a month ago, it was their first victory of the season over the Bairns, with the two previous matches ending in draws.
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