Going into this match, Falkirk sit 8th in the table after a midweek 2-2 draw to Hibernian. Hearts remain unbeaten in their league campaign and currently sit 2nd in the table, just behind Celtic on goal difference.
Heart of Midlothian’s Form Guide
Using the Hearts vs Falkirk Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Hearts have had an unbeaten start to their Premiership season, with their only draw coming to Motherwell at home. Their one loss so far came in the League Cup, where they were knocked out on penalties by St. Mirren.
- 0–2 Win vs Rangers (A) – Premiership
- 1–2 Win vs Livingston (A) – Premiership
- 3–3 Draw vs Motherwell (H) – Premiership
- 1–1 Loss (5–4 on penalties) vs St. Mirren (H) – League Cup
- 2–3 Win vs Dundee United (A) – Premiership
Heart of Midlothian’s Last Two League Matches Analysed:
Rangers vs Heart of Midlothian
Although both teams had the same number of shots and shots on target in this match, Hearts generated a higher xG of 2.2 compared to Rangers’ 1.1. This shows Hearts were able to work the ball into better shooting opportunities, giving them more high-quality efforts.
At the other end, Hearts kept the number of high-quality chances for Rangers down with a low average of 0.08xG per shot. One of the likely reasons for this is Hearts’ security in possession at the back, losing the ball only 21 times in their own third, compared to 28 for Rangers, meaning fewer chances for Rangers to attack when the defence was unorganised.
One way Hearts made the most of their little possession was to move the ball quickly up the pitch, with 27% of their passes being progressive, compared to 10% for Rangers. This gave them more chances to attack before the Rangers defence could settle.
Rangers also committed significantly more fouls than Hearts, with one of these leading to a penalty. Although it was saved, the rebound was then converted for their second goal.
Livingston vs Heart of Midlothian
Hearts set up very differently in this match, dominating possession and having twice as many shots as Livingston. Most of these came from set pieces, with nine of their 12 efforts starting from dead-ball situations, including four from corners.
One of the reasons they were successful in dead-ball situations was their high aerial win rate at 54%, compared to 34% for Livingston. They were also much stronger in their defensive duel on the ground, winning 71%, compared to 48%.
Even taking into account the extra possession Hearts had, they made a relatively low number of interceptions at 14, compared to Livingston. This suggests their focus was less on cutting out passes early, and more on competing directly in duels.
One defensive area they did dominate was winning the ball high up the pitch, with 23 recoveries in the opposing third compared to just three for Livingston. This allowed Hearts to start attacks early and showed their own defence was comfortable on the ball.
Heart of Midlothian’s One to Watch:
Stuart Findlay: Hearts’ left-sided centre back, on loan from Oxford United, has already scored three goals in their five Premiership matches, making him their joint top scorer. This record highlights Hearts’ strength from set pieces, with Findlay averaging 1.4 shots per game.
He has also been strong defensively, winning 83% of his aerial duels and averaging 4.2 clearances per match.
Final Thoughts:
Hearts have scored 12 goals in their five games, making them the highest scoring team by a clear margin, with the next closest team scoring only eight.
One area where they have been especially dangerous is set pieces, averaging 6.2 shots per game. Falkirk may have a way to limit this, as their aerial duel success rate is 51%, just lower than Hearts’ of 53%, and well above the league average of 46%.
For Falkirk in attack, crosses have been a key route to setting up shooting chances. They average 6.8 accurate crosses per game, compared to a league average of five, although Hearts’ aerial strength makes this more of a challenge than usual.
Falkirk will also likely face a significantly higher number of progressive passes than usual, with Hearts averaging 62 compared to the average Falkirk face of 45. However, Falkirk have been relatively successful in stopping these passes with an accuracy of just 62% for their opponents, compared to the league average of 72%, which suggests they could reduce Hearts’ usual efficiency in this area.
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