Fresh from an impressive display against Celtic in midweek, Falkirk make the short trip to Edinburgh on Saturday in the fourth round of the Scottish Cup.
The Jambos are, of course, the Premiership leaders, having picked up 50 points in 22 games, while the Bairns are outperforming pre-season expectations by sitting sixth on 30 points.Hearts Form Guide
Using the Hearts v Falkirk Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the hosts are a team on fire. They have won seven of their last eight matches, while they are undefeated at home in all competitions this season, winning 10 of their 13 matches at Tynecastle.
2-0 Win vs St Mirren (H) – Premiership
1-0 Win vs Dundee (A) – Premiership
1-0 Win vs Livingston (H) – Premiership
3-2 Loss vs Hibs (A) – Premiership
2-1 Win vs Rangers (N) – Premiership
Hearts’ Recent League Matches:
Hearts vs St Mirren
Hearts’ victory over St Mirren was a game that was conditioned by the fact that the home side went down to 10 men when Beni Baningime was sent off after just 15 minutes. Having started in a 4-4-2 formation, the home side adopted a 5-3-1 for the rest of the first half and sought to limit their opponents.
It was a well controlled performance from Hearts in the first half, with their xG boosted to 1.05 in this opening period courtesy of a big chance for Alexandros Kyziridis just before the break. To that point, Claudio Braga had been the big threat, mustering three first half shots. Although there wasn’t a high volume of efforts, the chances created were strong.
The hosts produced a resilient defensive performance, though. They gave up just five shots (one on target) in the opening period for a combined 0.12 xG. Indeed, it was not backs-to-the-wall stuff; Hearts still had 46% possession.
Saints managed to get more of a grip on the game in the second half, but the hosts remained dogged at the back, winning 58% of duels, including 62% in the air, negating a strength of their opponents.
Critically, they were now more decisive with their attacking play. Lawrence Shankland made the most of a 0.09 xG opportunity with a finish worth 0.88 xGOT, while Tomas Magnusson was similarly emphatic with a headed chance to give the hosts victory.
For Hearts to register 2.11 xG to their opponents’ 0.98 in a game they had played the vast majority with a player less was highly impressive.
Dundee vs Hearts
Hearts were also reduced to 10 men in their victory over Dundee, though the context of the 1-0 win at Dens Park was rather different as they already held the lead in that match when goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow was dismissed on the stroke of half time. It’s a game that’s worth looking at as a couple of separate entities as a result.
Even in the first period, Hearts had been far from their best, with Claudio Braga’s goal being one of just four shots they mustered in the first half – and the only one that was on target over the course of the game as a whole. Although they had 61% possession, only six touches came in the Dundee box, highlighting just how much they struggled to penetrate their opponents.
It was notable that they committed 11 fouls in the first half. Over the course of the season, they are averaging just 11.2 fouls per game.
In the second period, Hearts were much more passive and prepared to defend their lead. Down to 10 men, they moved to a 5-3-1 formation and sought primarily to defend their own box. They would carry minimal threat at the other end of the park, managing just one touch in the Dundee box in the second period and completing just eight passes in the final third.
While Dundee got away 10 shots in the Hearts box, those were typically highly pressured efforts, with the Dark Blus’ generating just 0.85 xG from their 13 total attempts. With an average xG of 0.063 per shot, the hosts were relying on volume of efforts undoing the defensive work of their opponents, rather than creating high probability chances.
Hearts faced a barrage of crosses. They cleared 25 of 34 but were nearly made to pay as a late header from Emile Acquah appeared destined for the corner, only for Craig Gordon to make a match-winning save that went viral. Surprisingly, the effort only had an xGOT of 0.18.
Hearts’ One to Watch:
Jordi Altena: Rotated out of the team in midweek, the January arrival is likely to be back for this cup encounter, having made a positive impression in his two appearances since arriving from Waalwijk. He grabbed an assist on his first start against Livingston and will provide Hearts with much needed balance on the right to go with the attacking threat Harry Milne boasts on the left.
Final Thoughts:
While Hearts are in an excellent run of form, winning six of their last seven matches, including two victories this week, the nature of those should come as a boost to Falkirk ahead of this clash. After all, in the six days before this trip, the Jambos have played two matches and have spent 120 minutes of football down to 10 men.
Derek McInnes’ side might have got the victory on each occasion, but it was energy intensive, both mentally and physically. Certainly, they seemed to cope with the challenge better in midweek, even embracing the problem and making the most of it. But with the focus of the Edinburgh side still on securing the league title, it’s likely to mean rotation here.
The evidence points to Hearts riding their luck somewhat this season. The expected points table has them 3rd behind both Celtic and Hibs. McInnes’ side are outperforming their xG and xGA, giving them 11 points more than their underlying suggests they would’ve likely posted at this stage.
Limiting the impact that the hosts’ attackers can have will be critical for Falkirk. Hearts have scored 12% of their total shots in the Premiership so far this season, which is the best tally in the league. With 33% of their shots on target going in, higher than any other team in the league, with Celtic the next best on 29%.
Falkirk have shown a willingness and a capability to impose the style they want to play on other teams this season, as they did in midweek against Celtic, and John McGlynn’s approach is, therefore, unlikely to change as he visits his former club.
Hearts have shown themselves to be a malleable team capable of winning matches in different ways, but it’s likely to be their depth that is tested at Tynecastle on Saturday, where Falkirk are aiming to be the first visiting team to win since Dundee back on 26 April.
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