Falkirk travel to Tynecastle on Saturday as they seek to bounce back from defeat to Dundee United last weekend.
Despite losing to Rangers last time out, Hearts go into the weekend as league leaders on 57 points, while Falkirk are on 39 in sixth.
Hearts Form Guide
Using the Hearts v Falkirk Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, the first thing that springs out is that the Jambos are undefeated at home in league play this season. Derek McInnes’ side have won nine of their 13 games at Tynecastle, scoring 26 goals and only conceding nine. Falkirk did, however, get the better of them in the Scottish Cup in Edinburgh, albeit via a penalty shoot-out.
4-2 Loss vs Rangers (A) – Premiership
1-0 Win vs Hearts (H) – Premiership
1-0 Loss vs St Mirren (H) – Premiership
3-0 Win vs Dundee United (A) – Premiership
2-2 Draw vs Celtic (H) – Premiership
Hearts’ Recent League Matches:
Rangers vs Hearts
Hearts twice led at Ibrox but were ultimately well outplayed by Rangers, who claimed a 4-2 win that few would deny they deserved. Missing key figures in Cammy Devlin and Lawrence Shankland, and suffering from an early injury to Oisin McEntee, Hearts generated just 0.4 xG and allowed 2.39 – their worst figure of the season.
Derek McInnes’ side were passive defensively against Rangers, averaging 11.68 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA). While their season average in this regard is 9.09.
Hearts did try to bring some life to their play at half time, when they moved from a 4-2-3-1 to a 3-4-3 system. This saw their PPDA drop to 8.6 in the second half and their formation line move from 42.2m to 45.6m, indicating they were trying to play higher up the field. Their possession share also increased from 34% to 54% after the break.
The tactical change might have succeeded in gaining Hearts a foothold in the match, but it ultimately failed in terms of making them a more effective side, particularly offensively. Having managed five shots in the first half, they had just one in the second, which was a Craig Halkett effort after a corner. By contrast, Rangers managed 10 second half shots compared to six in the first period.
Hearts vs Hibs
Hearts claimed the Edinburgh derby spoils with a tenacious 1-0 win over Hibs at home, which was decided by a late strike from Tomas Magnusson, who turned in a left wing cross from Harry Milne late in the game.
It was a game in which the Jambos showed tactical versatility. In the first half, they played with a 4-2-3-1 shape but changed that up to a 3-5-2 in the second half. The intention behind this was likely to be a more sustained attacking threat after a poor first period, in which they managed only five shots. Although they generated 0.8 xG, 0.62 of this came from a Pierre Landry Kabore/Islam Chesnokov double change on 41 minutes.
While Hearts struggled to improve offensively with the change of shape, it did mean that they became more aggressive out of possession. Their average formation line shifted forward from 45.7m to 51.2m while their PPDA dropped to 5.3 from 7.7. Hibs’ xG actually rose in the second half from 0.14 to 0.56, yet they still had a low volume of chances.
Going forward, Hearts’ focus was down the left wing. Of their 39 attacks, 18 came from this area. Of their eight crosses, six were delivered from the left flank, including the match-deciding pass from Milne.
Hearts’ One to Watch
Harry Milne: With a SofaScore rating of 7.28 this season, no Hearts player has outperformed Milne. He’s settled back into his usual left back role after a stint filling in various different roles this term, including right wing, and has become a key attacking player even from this deep. Of his six assists this season, two have come in the last four games. Meanwhile, he posts 1.1 shots per game.
Final Thoughts
Hearts are looking arguably weaker at present than at any stage of the season to date. Excluding the 3-0 win over Dundee United, when their opponents played much of the game with 10, and then nine men, McInnes’s side have won only one of their last four league games. In each of their last three, meanwhile, they have generated a total aggregate of 1.86 xG – their average in individual Premiership matches this season is 1.71.
It’s notable that they have failed to post 50% of the ball in each of their last three games, although Hearts are a team that do not necessarily need possession of the ball to thrive. With 51.4% in this regard all season, they rank 4th in the league, just ahead of Falkirk (50.1%).
This has not stopped them from being efficient in terms of scoring goals. With 50 this season, no club has scored more, albeit Hearts have overperformed in this regard, having generated 46.12 xG. They are one of just two teams overperforming in this regard this season, with the other being Rangers.
While they are missing their joint-top scorer in Lawrence Shankland due to injury, Claudio Braga is a player Falkirk cannot afford to sleep on. The Portuguese has a greater xG than any other player in the league with 12.24, while he bagged his 11th goal of the Premiership season last weekend against Rangers.
But Hearts are also without a key defensive figure in the form of Cammy Devlin. With 209 defensive duels, he leads the league in this regard – despite having missed the last five games through injury.
As a unit, Hearts have become increasingly intense out of possession, with their PPDA of 9.09 almost matching that of Rangers (9.05) and not too far behind Celtic at 8.48.
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