Falkirk travel to Kilmarnock on Saturday to face an opponent that parted company with manager Stuart Kettlewell on Monday.
Killie’s decision to change boss comes with them sitting 11th in the table on 12 points. Falkirk, meanwhile, are 7th on nine points.Kilmarnock Form Guide
Using the Kilmarnock v Falkirk Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Killie have been going through the wringer in recent weeks. The Ayrshire side are 10 without a win, picking up just two points in that run. Their home and away records are virtually identical,six6 points picked up in each category, thanks to one win and three draws.
2-1 Loss vs Aberdeen (A) – Premiership
3-0 Loss vs Rangers (H) – Premiership
1-1 Draw vs Hearts (A) – Premiership
1-1 Draw vs Dundee United (H) – Premiership
3-1 Loss vs Motherwell (H) – Premiership
Kilmarnock’s Recent League Matches:
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
A 2-1 defeat to Aberdeen at Pittodrie proved to be the final match of Kettlewell’s reign at Kilmarnock, with the final score doing little to reflect how one-sided this match ultimately became.
It was the archetypal game of two halves. The Ayrshire side had won the first period 1-0, reflecting their 1.01-0.15 advantage in xG. After the break, things could barely have been more different as the Dons generated an enormous 4.75 xG to turn the match around. Indeed, in the second half, Kilmarnock only managed one shot; Aberdeen had 14.
After a lacklustre first half, the home side picked up the pace of the game, and Kilmarnock struggled to respond. Having offered 0.42 attacks per minute in the first half, they increased this to 0.67 in the second, while their pass accuracy rose from 84% to 88%, in part thanks to playing fewer long balls.
In the meantime, Kilmarnock dropped deeper in the pitch. Having pushed their average formation line to 50.9m in the first half – higher than Aberdeen’s 47.7m – they dropped to 42.5m after the break. Ball possession plummeted from a 40% share in the first 45 minutes to only 28% in the second half, while they managed only 0.18 attacks per minute after posting 0.52 in the first half (more than Aberdeen’s 0.42).
The energy leaked out of Killie’s defensive work, too. Their recoveries per minute tumbled from 0.4 in the first half to 0.18 in the second, while their dual win rate dipped to 43% having been at 48%.
When things were going well for Killie, they were extremely dangerous through the centre, with 94% of their xG created from this area, but equally, they gave up 79% of their xGA down the middle.
Kilmarnock vs Rangers
Kilmarnock put up a decent fight against Rangers and certainly did not deserve to slump to the type of heavy 3-0 loss that they were on the end of. Indeed, they actually outshot their opponents 12-11, a figure above their season average of 9.12 shots per game.
Perhaps surprisingly, Killie were proactive in the match and were not content simply to sit back and let their guests dictate things. They pushed high up the field and had six starters whose average position was in the Rangers half. By contrast, the visitors could only say that about three of their players. This is reflected in the average formation lines of the sides, with Killie sitting at 51.6m compared to Rangers’ 44.6m.
Killie only gave up two big chances over the course of the game, but they did not create any themselves. Compounding their issue was the fact that Rangers took both their opportunities with excellent Bojan Miovski finishes.
Indeed, while the shot count of the Rugby Park side was healthy, as previously mentioned, the quality of chances they created was low. Aside from a Marcus Dackers header after 12 minutes, which had an xG value of 0.2, they did not have another effort from a position that had an xG value of at least 0.1.
When they attacked, they primarily did so down their right. Of their 33 attacks, 19 came from that flank, yet it produced only 10% of their xG. Perhaps understandably, then, they switched tactics in the latter part of the match, not putting a single cross in after the 53rd minute. This was coupled with Dackers being replaced. The Welshman leads the league in aerial duels per 90 this season on 14.11, and is a clear focus for direct passes.
Killie created six of their 12 shooting opportunities thereafter, albeit Rangers were already two goals up and managing the match.
Kilmarnock’s One to Watch:
David Watson: Returning after suspension from the Aberdeen game, the highly rated midfielder is expected to be handed a starting role. He is Killie’s top scorer with three goals for the season and has turned in a succession of solid displays. Watson is a surprisingly active attacking threat, with 1.8 shots per match, a team-leading figure.
Final Thoughts:
Predicting how Kilmarnock will approach this game is naturally going to be a difficult challenge given that Kris Doolan is poised to take an interim role. He is coming from outside the club and had been positioned to take a role with the youth setup, having been out of work since leaving Partick Thistle in February.
Doolan was known as a manager who liked his Thistle side to play on the front foot in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 system. His time at Firhill was not marked by defensive solidarity, but it was something he tried to instil in his team when he first took the job way back in March 2023. Indeed, the Jags only conceded one goal in his first six games, and he will likely try to put this type of spirit into Kilmarnock.
The Ayrshire side have simply not been good enough at the back this season. No club has conceded more than Killie’s 32 goals, while their 29.79 xGA also stands as the poorest figure in the league. This has to be the first area for surgery.
It’s also interesting to note that Killie have also invited pressure on themselves this season. Teams have sought to press them. With 8.49 PPDA per match on average, no team has been harried as much in possession.
Don’t be surprised to see Kettlewell’s usual back three ripped up and Doolan putting in place his preferred formation, potentially to the benefit of winger Scott Tiffoney, who has struggled for game time after scoring six in 35 with Dundee last season.
The good news for Falkirk is that John McGlynn has won two and drawn two of the previous head-to-head matchups between these managers, with Falkirk’s 5-2 win over Partick in February 2025 one of Doolan’s last matches in charge of the Jags.
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