Falkirk still have a little work to do in order to cement top-six football after the split, and a trip to Motherwell offers John McGlynn’s side their latest chance to earn the point they require.
The Well have been one of the most eye-catching sides in the Premiership this season as they sit 4th on 54 points. Falkirk are 6th on 43.
Motherwell Form Guide
Using the Motherwell v Falkirk Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the hosts have been excellent at Fir Park. The Well might have earned plaudits for the brand of football that they play, but this has been underpinned by a defence that has only conceded six home goals this season. As a result, they have only lost once in front of their home fans… but that was against Falkirk.
0-0 Draw vs Hibs (H) – Premiership
3-1 Loss vs Celtic (A) – Premiership
2-1 Loss vs Dundee (A) –Premiership
2-0 Win vs Dundee United (H) – Premiership
5-0 Win vs St Mirren (A) – Premiership
Motherwell’s Recent League Matches:
Motherwell v Hibs
Motherwell’s home display against Hibs was a below-par performance by the standards that Jens Berthel Askou has set for his side this season. Although they bossed 62% of the ball over the course of the game, they produced only 0.66 xG, which equals the lowest figure they have mustered at home and is well below their season average of 1.62 in the Premiership.
In possession, Motherwell approached this match like any other. Their match tempo, a measure of how many passes they typically produce per minute when in pure possession, of 17.2 was in line with their Premiership average of 17.26, while their long pass % of 8.43 virtually matched their season-long average of 8.56.
Hibs, meanwhile, were somewhat passive out of possession, allowing 16.08 passes per defensive action. While this was more standoffish than Motherwell’s average opponents this term (13.1), it was not anything particularly remarkable and reflects a game where they simply were not at their best. A total of six offsides, matching their season-high figure, shows a marginal lack of accuracy.
But if Motherwell were unable to win the game, they at least ensured that they did not lose it. They allowed only seven shots, six of which came during a spell between minutes 51-78. While the volume of shots was not a problem, the areas they came from will be a red flag for Askou, as six of them came from inside the box.
Celtic v Motherwell
Motherwell went to Celtic Park with the intention of going toe-to-toe with the champions, and while they ended up on the wrong end of a 3-1 scoreline, they left Glasgow’s East End having put up a strong fight.
The Well actually bossed possession at Parkhead, having as much as 67% of the ball in the opening 15 minutes. By half time, when the score was 1-1, they still commanded 59.2% of the ball – not far from the 60.5% that they typically enjoy in the opening period of games. The opening 45 minutes was close fought, with both sides having five shots, and the scoreline was a just reflection of the match.
In the second half, Celtic raised the intensity of their defensive work. Having posted a PPDA of 15.79 in the first half, they squeezed their opponents to 9.18 in the second period. Motherwell’s passing accuracy dropped from 89% in the first half to 84% after the break. In turn, their ball losses in their own third rose from 5 to 15 over the course of the second half.
It would be remiss to fail to point out that Celtic’s decisive goals in the second half only arrived after Emmanuel Longelo had been sent off, yet much of the work to grind Motherwell down had been done earlier in the second period. By the point the left back saw red, his side were already under pressure.
Motherwell’s One to Watch:
Elliot Watt: The midfielder has pushed himself into Scotland contention this season thanks to a series of excellent performances at the base of the Motherwell midfield, where he is the deep-lying playmaker who helps make them tick. He has three assists for the season, but it’s his passing that really stands out. He leads the Well with 72.5 accurate passes per match – 13 more than any other player – while he delivered 6.4 accurate long balls per game.
Final Thoughts:
The quality of Motherwell’s play this season is perhaps best illustrated by the expected points table, which would have them only seven behind leaders Celtic.
Only Celtic have completed more passes than the Well this season, while they are also the side with the 2nd-highest figure when it comes to possession with 58.9%. This is perhaps all the more remarkable given that teams do not tend to particularly sit deep against them. With 13.1 PPDA against them, for example, they are pressed far more than Celtic, whose tally in sits at 20.1.
Recent form, meanwhile, has sparked some concerns over a slump. Motherwell have failed to win any of their last three matches, and there are some concerning signs in terms of the xG numbers they have produced in those games. Given that they had generated 1.5 xG or higher in six of their previous seven Premiership outings, there is little reason yet to panic.
Falkirk, meanwhile, did find a way to limit Motherwell when the sides last clashed in December. McGlynn’s side allowed only 0.44 xGA that day, which is the lowest figure that the Lanarkshire side have posted all season.
With the Bairns also winning at Fir Park back in October – the only side to do so in the Premiership this season – there is little reason to fear this trip.
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