It’s a short trip for Falkirk in the Scottish Cup on Sunday as they travel to face local rivals Stenhousemuir in a televised clash.
The Warriors are experiencing one of the best seasons in the history of the club, with Gary Naysmith having guided them to second in League One, with 41 points on the board so far.
Stenhousemuir Form Guide
Using the Stenhousemuir v Falkirk Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Warriors have a strong home record that should be respected. They have lost only one of their 12 league matches at Ochilview, scoring 21 goals in the process compared to just 11 in 11 on their travels.
2-2 Draw vs Peterhead (H) – League One
1-0 Loss vs Inverness (A) – Challenge Cup
2-0 Win vs Kelty Hearts (A) – League One
4-0 Win vs Morton (H) – Scottish Cup
2-1 Win vs Stirling Albion (A) – Challenge Cup
Stenhousemuir’s Recent League Matches:
Stenhousemuir vs Peterhead
Stenhousemuir staged a remarkable comeback to secure a 2-2 draw against Peterhead at home last weekend, with two goals in the final six minutes of the game salvaging a point from a match that seemed lost. Indeed, the Warriors’ recovery was more about mentality than it was necessarily about their strong play.
They managed only six shots over the course of the game and scored both of their only two shots on target. In total, they generated just 1.18 xG, so it was a largely unimpressive offensive display. They came up well short of their average of 10.18 shots per match and 1.41 xG.
While their shot count was low, what they did do well was get into good shooting positions. Of their six shots, all but one carried an xG of at least 0.15, suggesting that they were at least willing to be patient to get into good areas before pulling the trigger.
Stenhousemuir were asked to try to break the Blue Toon down, dominating possession throughout the game. This is not their strength, though. They had 56.5% of the ball, but average only have 46.73%. Despite this, their average pass length of 23.34m was longer than their average of 22.31.
It was notable that their intensity out of possession was very high throughout the game, though in the final 15 minutes of each half, it notably dipped. Their passes allowed per defensive action was 5.77, the lowest figure they have achieved in this regard since November.
Kelty Hearts vs Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir produced a remarkably solid performance to claim a 2-0 win against struggling Kelty Hearts in Fife, allowing the home side just one shot over the course of the game as they secured victory.
Although the hosts were reduced to 10 men early on while the match was scoreless, the game was a study in the type of performance that Naysmith’s side enjoy. They were extremely robust defensively, and while they did not create too many scoring chances themselves – they offered only eight shots – what opportunities were fashioned were high-quality ones. Indeed, the average xG value per shot in this game was 0.249.
Once they moved into a 2-0 lead, they controlled possession but certainly did not force the game. Nevertheless, they were comfortable with the ball on this occasion, with their total of 425 passes attempted far and away their best tally this season (369 was their previous best, and their average stands at 289.8).
Despite their man advantage, they continued to work hard out of possession and put their opponents under pressure with 7.13 PPDA (passes per defensive action). This figure would have been significantly smaller had their last 15 minutes not seen this figure drop to 14, when the match was, to all intents and purposes, won.
Stenhousemuir’s One to Watch:
Matty Aitken: With 11 goals across all competitions this season, centre-forward Matty Aitken is likely to be the Warriors’ danger man. He has scored in each of his last two league games and has had a hand in a goal in each of the last four. Furthermore, he netted two against Morton in the previous round, so the 28-year-old is bang in form.
Final Thoughts:
Stenhousemuir are a team that values solidarity at the back over anything else. This is underlined by the fact that the goals they conceded against Peterhead last weekend brought to an end a run of six successive games in the league and Scottish Cup in which they had kept a clean sheet.
With 8.44 shots against per match, they rank 2nd in the league behind only Inverness in terms of defensive sturdiness. This is achieved by a willingness to be combative. No team has been involved in as many as the Warriors’ 1593 duels, while their success of 68.4% is by far and away the best in the league. Next best are Peterhead on 65.8%.
The Larbert side, however, do not fare quite so well when it comes to aerial duels. Although they compete in more than any other club, their 44.2% success rate is below average.
This no-thrills approach is replicated by their attacking play. They rank 7th in terms of shots per game with only 9.65, but they are highly efficient with those. When the Warriors shoot, 42.9% of their efforts hit the target while their average shot carries an xG value of 0.13. Meanwhile, with eight shots off the woodwork, no team has struck the frame of the goal more.
While Stenhousemuir have a PPDA against of 7.76 – the lowest in the league – which might suggest teams are intensely pressing them, their directness could also be a factor in this. With 1400 long balls this season, no League One side has posted more, suggesting that Falkirk will have to be ready to be put under instant pressure when they lose the ball.
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